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Prediction of a typhoon track using a generative adversarial network and satellite images

机译:利用生成的对抗网络和卫星图像预测台风航迹

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摘要

Tracks of typhoons are predicted using a generative adversarial network (GAN) with satellite images as inputs. Time series of satellite images of typhoons which occurred in the Korea Peninsula in the past are used to train the neural network. The trained GAN is employed to produce a 6-hour-advance track of a typhoon for which the GAN was not trained. The predicted track image of a typhoon favorably identifies the future location of the typhoon center as well as the deformed cloud structures. Errors between predicted and real typhoon centers are measured quantitatively in kilometers. An averaged error of 95.6 km is achieved for tested 10 typhoons. Predicting sudden changes of the track in westward or northward directions is identified as a challenging task, while the prediction is significantly improved, when velocity fields are employed along with satellite images.
机译:使用生成的对抗网络(GAN)以卫星图像作为输入来预测台风的轨迹。过去在朝鲜半岛发生的台风卫星图像的时间序列用于训练神经网络。训练有素的GAN被用来生成一个6小时的台风前进轨迹,而GAN并未针对该台风进行训练。台风的预测轨迹图像有利地标识了台风中心以及变形的云结构的未来位置。预报台风中心与实际台风中心之间的误差以千米为单位进行定量测量。测试的10个台风的平均误差为95.6 km。将速度场与卫星图像一起使用时,预测向西或向北方向的轨道突然变化被认为是一项艰巨的任务,而对预测的改进显着。

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