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Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

机译:股票价格动态中的记忆效应:技术交易的证据

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摘要

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior.
机译:技术交易代表对金融市场的一种投资策略,该策略基于对价格时间序列的趋势和循环模式的分析。根据标准的经济理论,不应使用这些策略,因为它们无法盈利。相反,众所周知,技术商人存在并在不同的时间范围内运作。在本文中,我们研究了技术交易是否在价格时间序列中产生可检测的信号,以及价格动态中是否引入了某种记忆效应。特别是,我们专注于一个特定的数字,称为支撑和阻力。我们首先制定一个标准,以检测支撑和阻力的潜在值。然后,我们证明价格动态中的记忆效应与这些选定值相关。实际上,我们表明,价格反弹的可能性大于穿越这些价值的可能性。这种影响是所谓的“自我实现”预言的定量证据,也就是代理商对未来股票价格行为的信念和情绪的自我强化。

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