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Land-use change interacts with climate to determine elevational species redistribution

机译:土地利用变化与气候相互作用确定海拔物种的重新分布

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摘要

Climate change is driving global species redistribution with profound social and economic impacts. However, species movement is largely constrained by habitat availability and connectivity, of which the interaction effects with climate change remain largely unknown. Here we examine published data on 2798 elevational range shifts from 43 study sites to assess the confounding effect of land-use change on climate-driven species redistribution. We show that baseline forest cover and recent forest cover change are critical predictors in determining the magnitude of elevational range shifts. Forest loss positively interacts with baseline temperature conditions, such that forest loss in warmer regions tends to accelerate species’ upslope movement. Consequently, not only climate but also habitat loss stressors and, importantly, their synergistic effects matter in forecasting species elevational redistribution, especially in the tropics where both stressors will increase the risk of net lowland biotic attrition.
机译:气候变化正以深远的社会和经济影响推动全球物种重新分布。但是,物种运动在很大程度上受到栖息地可用性和连通性的限制,其中与气候变化的相互作用影响仍然未知。在这里,我们研究了来自43个研究地点的2798个海拔范围变化的公开数据,以评估土地利用变化对气候驱动物种重新分布的混杂影响。我们表明,基线森林覆盖率和近期森林覆盖率变化是确定海拔范围变化幅度的关键预测因子。森林流失与基线温度条件呈正相关关系,因此,温暖地区的森林流失往往会加速物种的上坡运动。因此,不仅气候,而且生境丧失压力源,以及重要的是,它们的协同作用在预测物种海拔重新分布方面都至关重要,特别是在热带地区,这两个压力源都将增加净低地生物消耗的风险。

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