A Generally Efficient Targeted Minimum Loss Based Estimator based on the Highly Adaptive Lasso

摘要

Suppose we observe n independent and identically distributed observations of a finite dimensional bounded random variable. This article is concerned with the construction of an efficient targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) of a pathwise differentiable target parameter of the data distribution based on a realistic statistical model. The only smoothness condition we will enforce on the statistical model is that the nuisance parameters of the data distribution that are needed to evaluate the canonical gradient of the pathwise derivative of the target parameter are multivariate real valued cadlag functions (right-continuous and left-hand limits, (G. Neuhaus. On weak convergence of stochastic processes with multidimensional time parameter. Ann Stat 1971;42:1285–1295.) and have a finite supremum and (sectional) variation norm. Each nuisance parameter is defined as a minimizer of the expectation of a loss function over over all functions it its parameter space. For each nuisance parameter, we propose a new minimum loss based estimator that minimizes the loss-specific empirical risk over the functions in its parameter space under the additional constraint that the variation norm of the function is bounded by a set constant. The constant is selected with cross-validation. We show such an MLE can be represented as the minimizer of the empirical risk over linear combinations of indicator basis functions under the constraint that the sum of the absolute value of the coefficients is bounded by the constant: i.e., the variation norm corresponds with this L1-norm of the vector of coefficients. We will refer to this estimator as the highly adaptive Lasso (HAL)-estimator. We prove that for all models the HAL-estimator converges to the true nuisance parameter value at a rate that is faster than n^−1/4 w.r.t. square-root of the loss-based dissimilarity. We also show that if this HAL-estimator is included in the library of an ensemble super-learner, then the super-learner will at minimal achieve the rate of convergence of the HAL, but, by previous results, it will actually be asymptotically equivalent with the oracle (i.e., in some sense best) estimator in the library. Subsequently, we establish that a one-step TMLE using such a super-learner as initial estimator for each of the nuisance parameters is asymptotically efficient at any data generating distribution in the model, under weak structural conditions on the target parameter mapping and model and a strong positivity assumption (e.g., the canonical gradient is uniformly bounded). We demonstrate our general theorem by constructing such a one-step TMLE of the average causal effect in a nonparametric model, and establishing that it is asymptotically efficient.