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Mosquito-borne transmission in urban landscapes: the missing link between vector abundance and human density

机译:蚊虫在城市景观中的传播:媒介丰度与人类密度之间的缺失联系

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摘要

With escalating urbanization, the environmental, demographic, and socio-economic heterogeneity of urban landscapes poses a challenge to mathematical models for the transmission of vector-borne infections. Classical coupled vector–human models typically assume that mosquito abundance is either independent from, or proportional to, human population density, implying a decreasing force of infection, or per capita infection rate with host number. We question these assumptions by introducing an explicit dependence between host and vector densities through different recruitment functions, whose dynamical consequences we examine in a modified model formulation. Contrasting patterns in the force of infection are demonstrated, including in particular increasing trends when recruitment grows sufficiently fast with human density. Interaction of these patterns with seasonality in temperature can give rise to pronounced differences in timing, relative peak sizes, and duration of epidemics. These proposed dependencies explain empirical dengue risk patterns observed in the city of Delhi where socio-economic status has an impact on both human and mosquito densities. These observed risk trends with host density are inconsistent with current standard models. A better understanding of the connection between vector recruitment and host density is needed to address the population dynamics of mosquito-transmitted infections in urban landscapes.
机译:随着城市化进程的不断升级,城市景观的环境,人口和社会经济异质性对传播媒介传播感染的数学模型提出了挑战。经典的矢量-人耦合模型通常假定蚊子的丰度与人口密度无关或成正比,这意味着感染力正在下降,或者人均感染率随宿主数量的增加而降低。我们通过引入不同的募集函数在宿主密度和载体密度之间引入显式依赖性来质疑这些假设,我们将在修改的模型公式中检查其动力学后果。证明了感染力的相反模式,特别是当新兵随着人的密度增长足够快时,趋势尤其明显。这些模式与温度的季节性相互作用可能会导致时间,相对峰大小和流行病持续时间的明显差异。这些拟议的依赖性解释了在德里市观察到的经验登革热风险模式,那里的社会经济地位对人类和蚊子的密度都有影响。这些观察到的与宿主密度有关的风险趋势与当前的标准模型不一致。需要更好地了解媒介募集与宿主密度之间的联系,以解决城市景观中蚊子传播感染的种群动态。

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