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Optimal control of epidemics in metapopulations

机译:种群中流行病的最佳控制

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摘要

Little is known about how best to deploy scarce resources for disease control when epidemics occur in different but interconnected regions. We use a combination of optimal control methods and epidemiological theory for metapopulations to address this problem. We consider what strategy should be used if the objective is to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show, for a system with two interconnected regions and an epidemic in which infected individuals recover and can be reinfected, that equalizing infection in the two regions is the worst possible strategy in minimizing the total level of infection. Treatment should instead be preferentially directed at the region with the lower level of infection, treating the other subpopulation only when there is resource left over. The same strategy holds with preferential treatments of regions with lower levels of infection when quarantine is introduced.
机译:当流行病在不同但相互联系的地区发生时,如何最好地部署稀缺资源来控制疾病知之甚少。我们结合最佳控制方法和流行病学理论对后代人群进行处理,以解决这一问题。如果目标是在流行过程中尽量减少被打折的受感染个体的数量,我们将考虑采用哪种策略。我们表明,对于一个具有两个相互连接的区域的系统,以及一个流行病,感染者可以康复并且可以再次感染,在两个地区中均衡感染是最大程度地降低感染总数的最坏策略。相反,应优先针对感染程度较低的地区进行治疗,仅在剩余资源时才对其他亚人群进行治疗。引入隔离区时,对具有较低感染水平的地区进行优惠待遇也可以采用相同的策略。

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