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Imperfect vaccination: some epidemiological and evolutionary consequences.

机译:疫苗接种不完善:一些流行病学和进化的后果。

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摘要

An aim of some vaccination programmes is to reduce the prevalence of an infectious disease and ultimately to eradicate it. We show that eradication success depends on the type of vaccine as well as on the vaccination coverage. Vaccines that reduce the parasite within-host growth rate select for higher parasite virulence and this evolution may both increase the prevalence of the disease and prevent disease eradication. By contrast, vaccines that reduce the probability of infection select against virulence and may lead more easily to eradication. In some cases, epidemiological feedback on parasite evolution yields an evolutionary bistable situation where, for intermediate vaccination coverage, parasites can evolve towards either high or low virulence, depending on the initial conditions. These results have practical implications for the design and use of imperfect vaccines in public- and animal-health programmes.
机译:一些疫苗接种计划的目标是降低传染病的流行率并最终消除它。我们表明,根除成功取决于疫苗类型以及疫苗接种覆盖率。降低宿主体内寄生虫生长率的疫苗会选择更高的寄生虫毒力,这种进化可能会增加疾病的流行率并阻止疾病的根除。相比之下,降低感染可能性的疫苗会选择毒性,并可能更容易根除。在某些情况下,有关寄生虫进化的流行病学反馈会产生进化双稳态的情况,对于中等疫苗接种覆盖率,寄生虫可根据初始条件向高毒力或低毒力发展。这些结果对于在公共和动物健康计划中设计和使用不完善的疫苗具有实际意义。

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