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Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

机译:Elman递归随机神经网络的金融时间序列预测

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摘要

In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.
机译:近年来,金融市场动态预测一直是经济研究的重点。为了预测股票市场的价格指数,我们开发了一种将Elman递归神经网络与随机时间有效函数结合在一起的体系结构。通过使用线性回归,复杂性不变距离(CID)和多尺度CID(MCID)分析方法对提出的模型进行分析,并将该模型与反向传播神经网络(BPNN),随机时间有效神经网络(BP实验结果表明,所提出的神经网络在金融时间序列预测中表现出这些神经网络中最好的性能。此外,通过建立的模型对SSE,TWSE,KOSPI和Nikkei225的预测效果进行了实证研究,并且还显示了上述市场指数的相应统计比较。实验结果表明,该方法在从股票市场指数预测值方面具有良好的性能。

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