A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time-scales

摘要

Global silicate weathering drives long-time-scale fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. While tectonics, climate, and rock-type influence silicate weathering, it is unclear how these factors combine to drive global rates. Here, we explore whether local erosion rates, GCM-derived dust fluxes, temperature, and water balance can capture global variation in silicate weathering. Our spatially explicit approach predicts 1.9–4.6 × 10¹³ mols of Si weathered globally per year, within a factor of 4–10 of estimates of global silicate fluxes derived from riverine measurements. Similarly, our watershed-based estimates are within a factor of 4–18 (mean of 5.3) of the silica fluxes measured in the world's ten largest rivers. Eighty percent of total global silicate weathering product traveling as dissolved load occurs within a narrow range (0.01–0.5 mm/year) of erosion rates. Assuming each mol of Mg or Ca reacts with 1 mol of CO2, 1.5–3.3 × 10⁸ tons/year of CO2 is consumed by silicate weathering, consistent with previously published estimates. Approximately 50% of this drawdown occurs in the world's active mountain belts, emphasizing the importance of tectonic regulation of global climate over geologic timescales.