The hierarchical properties of potential energy landscapes have been used to gain insight into thermodynamic and kinetic properties of protein ensembles. It also may be possible to use them to direct computational searches for thermodynamically stable macroscopic states, i.e., computational protein folding. To this end, we have developed a top-down search procedure in which conformation space is recursively dissected according to the intrinsic hierarchical structure of a landscape's effective-energy barriers. This procedure generates an inverted tree similar to the disconnectivity graphs generated by local minima-clustering methods, but it fundamentally differs in the manner in which the portion of the tree that is to be computationally explored is selected. A key ingredient is a branch-selection algorithm that takes advantage of statistically predictive properties of the landscape to guide searches down the tree branches that are most likely to lead to the physically relevant macroscopic states. Using the computational folding of a β-hairpin-forming peptide as an example, we show that such predictive properties indeed exist and can be used for structure prediction by free-energy global minimization.
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