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Global Dynamics of Avian Influenza Epidemic Models with Psychological Effect

机译:具有心理效应的禽流感流行模型的全球动力学

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摘要

Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.
机译:禽流感H5N1和H7N9禽流感爆发后在泰国和中国进行的横断面调查显示,城乡居民对人禽流感的认识很高,城市居民的正确卫生习惯水平较高,并且特别是在2013年中国爆发H7N9流感之后,城市居民对活体市场的访问量显着减少。在本文中,考虑到禽流感对人类的心理影响,即人与人之间的传播建立了鸟类种群表现出饱和效应的模型。通过使用基本再现数研究模型的动力学行为。结果表明,禽流感人群中的饱和效应和人类心理效应不会改变平衡的稳定性,但是如果这种疾病很普遍,则会影响被感染的人数。数值模拟是为了支持对模型参数进行基本繁殖数量的理论分析和敏感性分析,以寻求有效的禽流感控制措施。

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