Early post-operative prediction of morbidity and mortality after a major liver resection for colorectal metastases

摘要

>Background An early prediction of poor outcomes is essential in the management of patients after a liver resection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of selected biochemical parameters on post-operative day 1 (POD 1) in the prediction of morbidity and mortality after a liver resection for colorectal metastases.>Method This retrospective study was based on 236 major liver resections for colorectal metastases performed between 2006 and 2011. Results of biochemical tests of blood samples obtained on POD 1 were assessed as predictors of primary outcome measures (hepatic and overall morbidity, 90-day mortality) using multiple regression and receiver-operating characteristics (ROC).>Results Hepatic morbidity, overall morbidity and 90-day mortality rates were 18.6%, 28.0% and 4.7%, respectively. On the basis of multiple regression analysis and comparisons of the prediction models, serum bilirubin was selected for the prediction of hepatic (>2.05 mg/dl, sensitivity 69.2%, specificity 71.2%) and overall (>2.05 mg/dl, sensitivity 61.1% and specificity 71.2%) morbidity, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) was selected for the prediction of 90-day mortality (>798 U/l, sensitivity 62.5% and specificity 90.4%).>Discussion Biochemical analyses of blood on POD1 enables stratification of patients into low- and high-risk groups for negative outcomes, with serum bilirubin associated with overall and hepatic morbidity and AST associated with mortality.