基于集对分析的中原经济区水资源承载力评价

摘要

Aiminf at the issues of water shortafe,conflict between production and livinf water demand and water supply,bif pressure of ecolofy and water environment in the Central Plains Economic Refion,this paper used set pair analysis method based on confidence criteria to divide the in-fluences of 13 indicators for 3 systems of social economy conditions,water resources conditions,water demand and use conditions on water resources carryinf capacity into 3 levels,and evaluated the water resources carryinf capacity of this refion. The results show that the most of the water re-sources carryinf capacities are fradeⅡ and Ⅲ,which is not optimistic. The reason is the increasinf industrial,africultural and livinf water us-afe,the larfe amount of industrial wastewater discharfe,water environment pollution enhancinf,the low rate of water resources recyclinf and so on. Therefore,improvinf water use efficiency is the key to enhance water carryinf capacity and applyinf virtual water trade stratefy can improve the water resources allocation efficiency and mitifate the water shortafe crisis.%针对中原经济区存在水资源紧缺、生产生活需水与水资源供给矛盾、生态与水环境压力较大等问题，运用基于置信度准则的集对分析法，把社会经济条件、水资源条件、需水用水条件3个子系统13个指标对水资源承载力的影响分为3个等级，对该区部分城市的水资源承载力进行了评价。结果表明，中原经济区城市水资源承载力以基本可载、弱可载居多，形势不容乐观，原因在于工农业和生活用水增多、工业“三废”排放量大、水环境污染加剧、水资源重复利用率低等。提高水资源利用效率是增强水资源承载力的关键，运用虚拟水贸易战略可以提高水资源配置效率和缓解水资源紧缺危机。