江苏省沿海围垦区来水预测系统开发与应用

摘要

来水预测系统是水资源一体化管理决策系统的重要组成部分。通过对江苏省沿海围垦区的水源进行划分，选定AR（ p）自回归模型和BP神经网络模型进行来水预测，并在Java平台上运用Oracle数据库构建了江苏省沿海围垦区多水源来水预测系统。系统主要有来水预测和实时更新两个功能，可为沿海围垦区水资源一体化管理和开发利用提供参考。%Water⁃inflow forecasting system is one of the most important parts of decision⁃making system of integrated water resources management. According to the analysis of water sources classification and inflow forecasting methods of the coastal reclamation area, this paper built AR( p) autoregressive model, BP intelligent algorithm and oracle database on the Java platform and built the inflow forecasting system in coastal reclamation area of Jiangsu Province. It mainly includes two sub⁃modules, which is water inflow forecasting sub⁃module and real⁃time updating sub⁃module, which aims to provide references for integrated water resources management and development in the coastal reclamation area.