Objective: To predict the likelihood of violence perpetration given various combinations of the most statistically salient risk and protective factors related to violence perpetration.Design: Urban Indian Youth Health Survey, conducted from October 9, 1995, to March 30, 1998, consisting of 200 forced-choice items exploring values, cultural identity, relationships, decision-making skills, and health and well-being.Setting: Urban schools and an after-school youth development program at an urban American Indian center.Participants: Five hundred sixty-nine urban American Indian youth enrolled in grades 3 through 12.Main Outcome Measures: Violence perpetration dichotomized in 2 ways: (1) level of violence perpetration (ie, hitting someone 1-2 times in the past year vs picking fights, hitting repeatedly, participating in group fights, or shooting or stabbing someone in the past year) and (2) having shot and/or stabbed someone dur-ing the past year.Results: In the final multivariate models with age as a covariate, most protective against violence perpetration were connections to school (odds ratio [OR], 0.17), positive affect (OR, 0.29), and peer prosocial behavior norms against violence (OR, 0.35).School connectedness (OR, 0.01) and positive affect (OR, 0.46) were also protective against shooting and/or stabbing someone, as was parental prosocial behavior norms against violence (OR, 0.23).The strongest risk factors for violence perpetration were substance use (OR, 2.60) and suicidal thoughts/ behaviors (OR, 2.71); for shooting and/or stabbing, it was substance use (OR, 5.26).The likelihood of violence perpetration increased markedly (from 10%to 85%)-as the exposure to risk factors increased and protective factors decreased.For shooting or stabbing someone, the probabilities ranged from 3%(0 risks and 3 protective factors) to 64%(1 risk and 0 protective factors).Conclusion: The dramatic reduction in the likelihood of violence involvement when risk was offset with protective factors in the probability profiles suggests the utility of a dual strategy of reducing risk while boosting protection.
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