基于SGP4模型的卫星轨道预报与精度分析

摘要

The space debris in space may at any time with the spacecraft collision, collision warning known satellite state of the current time, predict the future position and speed. Through calculating FENGYUN SGP4 model 3 c the TLE data from October 2014, forecast within 7 days of satellite orbit parameters, and TLE data reference point of difference and analyzed orbit parameters, orbital coordinates and speed of forward prediction results is better than the backward prediction of orbital coordinates and velocity. Within the through the analysis found that FENGYUN 3 c as an example the poles of the sun synchronous orbit satellite, using TLE data and SGP4 model can forecast the satellite orbit, achieve good results, especially in the Y direction of the component. The conclusion shows that the SGP4 model can in a certain time period accurately forecast the satellite orbit parameters, effectively serve the collision warning system, has a certain practical value.%在太空中空间碎片随时可能与航天器发生碰撞，碰撞预警即已知卫星当前时刻的状态，预测未来位置和速度。文章通过SGP4模型计算FENGYUN 3C从2014年10月的TLE数据，预报7天内的卫星轨道参数，并TLE数据参考时刻的轨道参数求差并进行分析，得出向前预测的轨道坐标与速度结果优于向后预测的轨道坐标与速度。通过内符合分析方法发现，FENGYUN 3C为例的近极地太阳同步轨道卫星，利用TLE数据和SGP4模型可预报其卫星轨道，获得较好的轨道结果，尤其在Y方向的分量上。这一结论显示SGP4模型能够在一定时间段内较准确地预报出卫星轨道参数，有效服务于碰撞预警系统，具有一定的实用价值。