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资本项下跨境资金流动形势分析与研判

         

摘要

With the establishment of the global floating exchange rate system and the implementation of the financial liberalization policy in every country, large-scale cross-border capital flow has become the most important feature of the global financial system. It is the inevitable result of the economic globalization and the financial integration. Accelerating the reform and opening up of the capital account is one of the main objectives of the financial system reform of China’s“12th Five-year Plan”. With the further deepening of the reform, the scale of cross-border capital in China has been increasing, and the volatility has increased, directly affecting the healthy development of the economy. By means of the data of 10 years, the paper analyzes the situation and characteristics of cross-border cap-ital flow under the capital account and its influence on the economy, judges the flow trend of the next phase, and puts forward mea-sures to respond to the cross-border capital flow under the capital account for the purpose of guiding the cross-border capital to flow more rationally and effectively and promoting the healthy development of the economy.%随着全球浮动汇率体系的建立以及各国金融自由化政策的实施,资本的大规模跨境流动已成为全球金融体系最重要的特征,它是经济全球化、金融一体化的必然结果。加快资本项目改革开放,是我国“十二五”规划中金融体制改革的主要目标之一,随着改革的进一步深化,我国资本项下跨境资金规模日益扩大,波动不断加大,直接影响到经济的健康发展。本文通过近10年的数据对资本项下跨境资金流动的特征及形势、对经济的影响进行分析,根据上述分析对下一阶段流动趋势做出研判,并提出应对资本项下跨境资金波动的措施,以此更好地引导跨境资金有效合理流动,促进经济健康发展。

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