乌溪江流域洪水预报及实时校正方法研究

摘要

应用新安江模型对乌溪江流域进行洪水预报,基于流域产汇流特点,将乌溪江流域以雨量站为中心划分子流域,以各子流域坡面汇流流达时间参数控制流域汇流,以达到模拟流域汇流时变性的效果.为了减小初始状态误差,使得模型计算过程中误差不逐时段累积,提出采用逐时段优选前期自由水蓄水量方法进行实时校正,并利用预测流量过程的径流系数做合理性验证.结果表明,在乌溪江流域划分子流域洪水预报效果较好,实时校正后预报精度更高,优选前期自由蓄水量实时校正预报流量是合理的.%Based on Xin'anjiang model,a kind of flood forecasting and real-time correction method for Wuxi River Basin is explored.Based on the characteristic of watershed runoff yield and concentration,the watershed subdivision is done by taking rainfall stations as centers.To simulate the time-varying characteristics of watershed runoff concentration,the flow time of overland flow concentration of each sub-basin is used to control watershed runoff concentration process.Aiming at reducing the error of initial state and calculation,the real-time correction method of optimizing early free water storage time interval by time interval is presented and the runoff coefficients of predictive flow processes are utilized to make rationality verification.The results show that the presented flood forecasting and real-time correction method for Wuxi River basin is reasonable.