中印对外直接投资的母国决定因素

摘要

As two of the largest developing countries, China and India started their outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in late 20th century. Notwithstanding it was later compared with that of developed countries, it develops rapidly in general. The current study aims to make researches about it by using a vector autoregressive model, with data reference selected from 1992 to 2014. OFDI, economic development level, capital cost and investment environment of China and India are chosen as variables. Respectively, the research proves that foreign direct investment of China Granger causes its level of OFDI. By contrast, the OFDI of India and the other three variables do not Granger cause each other. In addition, the rate of local GDP growth,the loan rates and foreign direct investment flows exert a combined influence on OFDI of both China and India.%中印两个发展中大国的对外直接投资(OFDI)始于20世纪中后期,起步较发达国家晚,但总体呈快速增长趋势.文章选取1992-2014年中国和印度的对外直接投资水平、经济发展水平、资金成本及投资环境作为变量,运用向量自回归模型实证研究中印OFDI的母国决定因素.结果表明:中印两国的OFDI都受到本国的GDP增长率、贷款利率及外商直接投资流量的联合影响.此外,中国的外商直接投资是其对外直接投资的单向格兰杰原因,印度的对外直接投资与其它三个变量则互不构成格兰杰原因.