Mechanism of Population Migration and Tendency of Urbanization in Labor Export Regions Based on the Push-and-Pull Model:A Case Study of Huaiyuan County in Northern Anhui Province

摘要

Surplus rural workers seek employment through inter-provincial migration, which was once a path to urbanization in labor export regions, and contributed a lot to the economic and social development of both the labor export regions and labor import regions. But in recent years the labor shortage in eastern regions indicates new changes of the Chinese population structure and migration. Based on the macro statistical analysis and f ield survey, this paper analyzes Huaiyuan County in northern Anhui Province by using the push-and-pull model as the analytical framework. Then it explores the mechanism of population migration and the tendency of urbanization from the aspects of the pull from labor import regions and the push from labor export regions. The study shows that both the pull from labor import regions and the push from labor export regions are decreasing, and reverse population migration may occur. Therefore, to accommodate such changes, labor export regions should transfer from 'Laborers Migrating for Employment' to 'Industry Transfer for Laborers' to promote healthy urbanization. Finally, it proposes further discussions in combination with the National New Urbanization Plan(2014 – 2020).