Housing Price Fluctuations Across China: An Equilibrium Mechanism Perspective

摘要

The mechanisms affecting housing prices were studied using the equilibrium housing prices based on classic supply/demand theory. The fluctuations of the actual housing prices were then analyzed relative to the equilibrium prices. The equilibrium prices for each area were calculated from economic statistics and housing prices in 35 China metropolitan areas. The fluctuations of the actual prices are then manifested as functions of the equilibrium price, the mean reversion, and the autocorrelation coefficient. The results show that the equilibrium prices are determined by the basic economic conditions in China and that the equilibrium prices greatly affect the fluctuation of the actual prices, which return to the equilibrium price through self-adjustments. The data also shows that the actual prices in China have the trend of continuing to rise in the future.