经济发展对耕地资源占用的压力与基于粮食安全及社会稳定的耕地资源保护需求一直是中国社会经济发展的一对矛盾。该文以江苏省为例，利用1976－2009年的相关数据，分析了耕地资源变化趋势、定量评价了耕地建设占用与经济增长间脱钩关系，并探讨了脱钩的原因。结果表明：江苏省耕地面积近35 a以来呈持续降低趋势，耕地总面积与人均耕地面积年均递减率分别为0.38%与1.33%；耕地面积减少趋势自20世纪80年代以来有所加速，直到2006以后，递减趋势减缓。自“六五”至“十一五”以来，耕地建设占用与非农产业产值增长之间一直呈相对或绝对脱钩状态；脱钩指标Di显示，增加单位产值所消耗的耕地面积逐阶段递减，自“五五”期间的923.5 hm2/亿元减少到“十一五”期间的20.5hm2/亿元，表明经济增长对耕地占用的依赖程度大大降低。固定资产投资额、劳动力、技术进步投入的持续增大以及经济增长方式的转变是耕地建设占用与经济增长脱钩的原因。随着数量型增长向质量型增长方式的转变，经济发展对耕地占用的消耗将会更低，耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾有望缓解。% Economic development pressure on the occupation of cultivated land resources and protective requirements for cultivated land based on food security and social stability have always been contradictory in the context of our socio-economic development. Using relative 1976-2009 data in Jiangsu Province, the variation tendency of cultivated land resources was analyzed, decoupling relationships between cultivated land occupation and economic growth were evaluated quantitatively, and the reasons for decoupling were explored. The decoupling indicator (Di), ratio of decoupling indicator (Dr), and decoupling factor (Fd) were used to assess decoupling relationships between cultivated land occupation and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1976 to 2009. Dr is defined as the ratio of decoupling indicator (Di) at the end to that of the start of a given time, as follows:Dr=Diend/Distart. Here Di=EP/DF, in which EP means environmental pressure, and DF stands for driving forces. And Fd=1-Dr. When Fd is above zero, decoupling occurred during the period. Decoupling can be divided into two forms, relative decoupling and absolute decoupling. When the economy increases, the use of resources or pressure on environment increases at certain lower rates separately, that is to say, the more economy increases, the relatively less the use of resources or pressures on environment increases because the gap between economic development and use of resources or pressure on environment becomes more and more great. This is what is called ‘relative decoupling’. Absolute decoupling would happen when the growth rate of resource use or pressure on environment decreased even though the gross use of resources increases rapidly while economic growth keeps increasing. All needed data were collected from Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook. Study results show that cultivated land area in Jiangsu province continuously declined over nearly 35 years, and the area of total cultivated land and per capita cultivated land declined by an annual average rate of 0.38%and 1.33%, respectively. The decline in cultivated land accelerated from the 1980s until 2006, at which time the decline slowed. Decoupling between cultivated land occupation and non-agricultural output growth has occurred in relative or absolute terms from the period of‘the Sixth Five-Year Plan’ to‘the Eleventh Five-Year Plan’. The decoupling indicator (Di) shows that the continuous decline in cultivated land consumption with increasing per unit GDP changed from 923.5 hm2/108 RMB to 20.5 hm2/108 RMB from the period of“the Fifth Five-Year Plan”to“the Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, indicating that economic growth has obvious lower dependence on the consumption of cultivated land. Decoupling between cultivated land occupation and economic growth is caused by the transformation of economic growth patterns and labour input, technological progress and investment in fixed assets continue to increase. With a transformation from quantitative growth to a quality-oriented growth model, cultivated land consumption by economic development will be lower, and contradictions of cultivated land protection and economic development are expected to ease.
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