考虑结构复杂性的研发项目组合关联性风险分析

摘要

Firstly, this paper analyzes the risk interdependency mechanism considering structure complexity and proposes the conception of R&D project portfolio interdependency risk.Then, based on the theory of cascading failure, it builds the measurement model of R&D project portfolio interdependency risk influenced by structure complexity.Risk controls of R&D project portfolio in the stage of selection and stage of in the stage of selection can help decision makers select optimized portfolios, which can prevent portfolio failure due to risk interdependence.Interdependency risk control in the stage of implement can help decision makers take effective risk monitoring measures and protect R&D project that have a wide range of risk interdependence.%首先,分析了结构复杂性影响下的风险关联机制,提出了研发项目组合关联性风险概念.然后,依据相继故障理论,构建了结构复杂性影响下的研发项目组合关联性风险度量模型,分析了研发项目组合选择和实施阶段的关联性风险控制.最后,运用实例证明:选择阶段的关联性风险控制有助于决策者选择优化的组合结构,防止风险关联引发组合失败;实施阶段的关联性风险控制有利于决策者采取有效的风险监控措施,保护风险关联影响广泛的研发项目.