东北亚国家出口多样化与经济增长的关系——基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

摘要

利用1996—2010年东北亚国家的贸易数据,验证了出口多样化与人均GDP之间的关系,并采用系统广义矩方法建立动态面板数据模型,估计了出口多样化对经济增长的贡献。结果表明：就东北亚单个国家而言,出口多样化与人均GDP之间呈U型变动关系,但就东北亚整体而言,这种U型关系并不明显;从东北亚国家的经验来看,出口多样化对经济增长具有积极作用;目前我国出口正处于从多样化向集中化转变的上升阶段,尚未达到U型曲线的拐点。%Using the trade data of Northeast Asian countries during 1996-2010,this paper testifies the relationship between export diversification index and per capita GDP.Then it empirically analyzes the contribution of export diversification to economic growth by using the dynamic panel data model.The results show as follows:the U-shape relationship does exists in each of Northeast Asian countries,but is not obvious for Northeast Asian countries as a whole;export diversification has a positive effect on economic growth;there are two channels through which export diversification affects a country's economic growth,namely capital accumulation and technological progress.As for China,export diversification is now in the phase that trade structure is turning from diversification towards concentration,that is to say,China is still at the left-side of the turning point of inverted U-shaped curve.