中国电力周期与经济周期的协同性——基于Markov区制转移模型

摘要

This paper studies the dynamic switching process of electricity consumption and economic growth based on the Markov-switching VAR model with "three regimes",and identifies and divides the phases of electricity consumption cycle and economic growth cycle after the reform and opening up,and analyzes the synchronization between them using the annual data of electricity consumption and GDP since the reform and opening up.The empirical results show as follows:electricity consumption cycle and economic growth cycle are characterized by three switching regimes,namely "low growth rate","high growth rate" and "stable growth";the fluctuation of electricity consumption in low growth rate and high growth period is significantly higher than that of GDP,while,and is significantly less than that of GDP in stable growth period;before the middle of 1980s,it is a static cooperative period of electricity consumption cycle and economic growth cycle;in the middle and late period of 1980s,is the performance of non cooperative period;after that,it is the performance of a significant cross regional dynamic synergy;moreover,the synergy period of electricity consumption cycle and economic growth cycle shows a high consistency in time.%采用1978-2015年中国电力消费和国内生产总值的年度数据,基于"三区制"马尔科夫区制转移模型,研究了电力消费和经济增长的动态转变过程,识别和划分了改革开放后中国电力周期和经济周期的阶段,并分析了两者在不同阶段的协同性.结果表明:电力周期和经济周期均具有低速增长期、稳定增长期和高速增长期三个区制转移特征;电力消费在低速增长期和高速增长期的波动性明显高于GDP,而在稳定增长期的波动性则显著小于GDP;20世纪80年代中期以前,是电力周期和经济周期的静态协同期;20世纪80年代中后期,两者处于非协同期;之后,两者处于显著的跨区制动态协同期,且处于协同期的电力周期与经济周期在时间上表现出较高的一致性.