郑州市断裂最大潜在地震发震概率评价

摘要

根据“郑州市城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价(二期)”综合目标区断层最大潜在地震判定结果,郑州市近东西向断裂有老鸦陈断裂和上街断裂等.老鸦陈断裂第四纪不活动,上街断裂等可能具有发生5-5.5级地震的能力.为了得到最大地震的发震概率,划分了统计区及潜在震源区,得到了地震活动性参数及空间分布函数.最终得出了郑州市断裂未来50年发生1次5级以上地震的概率为6％,未来100年发生1次5级以上地震的概率为11％.%Based on the results from project "The active fault detection and seismic risk evaluation (Phase II) of Zhengzhou City", there exist two east-west trending faults, i.e Lao Yachen fault and the Shanjie fault. The Lao Yachen fault was not active in Quaternary, whereas it is likely for a Af5-5.5 earthquake to occur along the Shanjie fault. In this study, we divided the study area into statistical units and obtained the seismic parameters and the spatial distribution function for the potential source areas. Finally, we estimated the probability of M5.0 earthquake along faults in Zhengzhou City as 6% in the next 50 years and 11% in 100 years.