对“中国西部的地震灾害与水电大坝”一文的商榷

摘要

我国西部处于构造活动带,在水电开发过程中的地震和水库诱发地震问题一直受到公众的关注.本文对约翰·杰克逊先生“中国西部地震灾害与水电大坝”中的一些问题做了针对性的讨论,对其文章的专业性和某些结论提出了质疑.本文认为“中国西部地震灾害与水电大坝”的作者,引用的基础资料都是极小比例尺的图件,精度较差,不能作为精细论证的依据.构造板块学认为:构造板块的边缘地带,构造运动最活跃,板内次级断裂活动性就相对差些.我国西部除西藏处于板块碰撞的边缘地带外,四川、云南等大片水电能源蕴藏地属于板内构造,并非最活跃区.通过对近代地震工程学的发展和翔实的事例论证,说明他得出我国西部建坝是“灾难性后果的危险尝试”的结论是荒谬的.最后,对汶川大地震与水库诱发地震的问题进行了阐述.%As located at tectonic activity zone,the development of hydropower facilities in southwest China has been a public concern for the high risk of earthquake and reservoir induced earthquake.In this article we discus some questions raised by John Jackson in the article titled "Earthquake Hazards and Large Dams in Western China".In his article,the southwestern China is classified as "high to very high" seismic zone based on global seismic zonation map with a very small scale.Since the scale of the map is very small the accuracy is not high enough so that should not be used as a fine demonstration basis.We strongly disagree the argument of "catastrophic consequences" pointed in the article.In the end we discussed the relationship between occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake and reservoir induced earthquake.