中国货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应与价格效应分析

摘要

This paper build a VAR model to analyze the quantity and price effects of interest rate instruments in China . T he study found that in an environment of excess liquidity , bank credit scale becomes sensitive to interest rates , the quantity effects of interest based monetary policy widened . However ,since there is a short -term"Fisher effect",the price effects of the interest rate instruments are weakened .The quantitative tools are more advantages in controlling the general price level .In practice , the monetary authorities should be flexible with the use of price -based and quantity based monetary policy instruments according to the different stages of the economic cycle and different financial environment in order to achieve policy objectives .%通过构建VAR模型，实证分析中国货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应和价格效应。结论显示：在市场流动性过剩的金融环境下，商业银行信贷规模对利率政策的敏感性增强，货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应有所扩大；由于短期“费雪效应”的存在，弱化了货币政策利率工具调控的价格效应；货币政策的数量型工具对抑制通货膨胀见效相对更快。因此，货币当局在金融调控中，需要根据经济发展的不同周期阶段和金融环境，合理搭配运用价格型和数量型货币政策工具，提高货币政策的调控效率和预期效应。