中国电影市场需求的季节效应与最优上映档期选择

摘要

基于中国上映的1713部影片周数据建立相对市场份额模型,在进一步控制了影片质量、生命周期、网络舆情和同业竞争等影响票房收入季节性因素后,揭示了电影市场需求的潜在季节效应,并发现中国电影市场的信息不对称性与垄断竞争使影片上映"短命化"和电影票房收入"两极分化".随后,基于电影市场需求估计值的潜在季节性峰值进行档期优化的模拟分析,发现有实力制片商对传统黄金档期的垄断行为弱化了非节假日期间的季节效应,电影厂商的上映档期选择仍存在帕累托改进空间.%Based on the weekly data of 1713 domestic films,this paper establishes the relative market share model,and studies the potential seasonal effect of market demand after stripping the seasonal factors of film revenue,such as film quality,life cycle,network public opinion and competition.We found that China's film market information asymmetry and monopolistic competition lead to the film released"short-lived"and the film box office revenue"polarization".Subsequently,through the simulation analysis of release optimization based on the peak of film market demand,it is found that the strength of the producers of the traditional gold schedule monopoly weakened the seasonal effects of non-holidays,making the film producers to install the schedule still exists Pareto improvement space.