凝析气藏见水时间预测模型考虑反凝析作用,但忽略了高产井近井区域非达西效应的影响,造成见水时间预测产生偏差.针对该问题,运用气水两相渗流力学理论,综合考虑气相非达西效应和反凝析作用的影响,得到边水凝析气藏高产井见水时间预测新模型.研究结果表明:预测边水凝析气藏高产井见水时间需考虑气相非达西效应和反凝析作用的影响,两者均会导致气体流速增大,见水时间变早.将新模型应用于 A气田 S45、AT11-6H、AT11-4井和AT11-2井,其计算结果相对误差小于8%,相比常用计算模型,精度提高了18.10%~39.34%,计算结果与现场实际数据吻合度高.研究成果对深入分析反凝析作用和气相非达西效应对凝析气藏边水推进的影响,预测边水凝析气藏的见水时间有重要的指导意义.%Due to the non-Darcy effect near the wellbore in high-rate well,the water breakthrough time prediction model for condensate gas reservoir by considering retrograde condensation usually leads to a prediction deviation. Based on gas-water two-phase seepage flow theory,both the gas non-Darcy and retrograde condensation effects are comprehensively considered to establish a new model to predict the water breakthrough time of high-rate well in condensate gas reservoir with edge-aquifer. Research indicates that it is necessary to consider the non-Darcy and retrograde condensation effects,both of which will lead to the increase of gas flow rate and the water breakthrough will be advanced. This new prediction model is applied to Well S45,Well AT11-6H,Well AT11-4 and Well AT11-2 in A Gasfield and the corresponding prediction error is less than 8%. Comparing with conventional predic-tion,the prediction precision of this new model is increased by 18.10%~39.34% and the corresponding prediction is in better agreement with actual field data. This research could provide significant guidance for the further analysis of retrograde condensation and non-Darcy effects on edge-aquifer invasion and accurate prediction of water break-through time in condensate gas reservoir with edge-aquifer.
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