基于日前电价预测的机组报价策略

摘要

随着中国新一轮电力市场改革的发展,中长期电力市场已经陆续放开,在现货市场准备逐步启动的情况下,电源商如何在市场中竞价成为发展关键.本文介绍了新一轮电力体制改革下电力市场的情况,分析了目前已有的电价预测方法和报价方式,并针对日前电力市场的报价策略展开研究.结合历史电价、环境因素和经济因素提出了基于相似日原理和支持向量机算法的电价预测方法,在考虑火电机组成本、报价风险的基础上提出了日前市场的机组报价策略,并采用先进的PSO-DE混合型算法对报价结果进行寻优.经算例验证,所提策略可以较好地应用于日前电力市场竞价,对电力现货市场和发电企业的发展具有一定的借鉴意义.%With the development of a new round reform of the electricity market in China, medium and long term electricity market has been gradually liberalized.Under the state of spot market being gradually started, how to bid in market becomes the key of development for power provider.This paper introduces the electricity market in new round reform, analyzes the currently existing electricity price forecasting method and bidding ways, and researches the day-ahead electricity market bidding strategies.Combining the historical price, environmental and economic factors, this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting method based on the similar day principle and the support vector machine algorithm.In consideration of the cost of thermal power units and bidding risk, this paper puts forward day-ahead market bidding strategies for units, and uses advanced particle swarm optimization algorithm-differential evolution (PSO-DE) hybrid algorithm to optimize bidding results.The results show that the proposed strategy can be applied to the electricity market bidding, which has a certain reference significance for the development of power spot market and power generation enterprises.