人力资本积累与城镇化的互动关系研究--基于空间面板联立方程的分析

摘要

A simple mathematical model is built to analyze the provincial regions' panel data from 1990 to 2010 by spatial panel simultaneous equations model to study the interaction between human capital accumulation and urbanization in China. The empirical analysis shows that provincial regions' per capita human capital and urbanization in China has a significant spatial correlation with significant space spillover effect. Urbanization have a non-linear effect on human capital accumulation, the marginal effect of urbanization on human capital accumulation rate is decreasing when the population urbanization rate is lower than 45.49%, while the marginal effect is increasing when the population urbanization rate is higher than 45.49%. The space spillover of tertiary industry proportion, per capital GDP, human capital and tertiary industry promote human capital accumulation , and the cross-term of urbanization and the tertiary industry has a positive effect on human capital accumulation under the 5% significance level indicating that tertiary industry increase the marginal effect of urbanization on human capital accumulation rate. Similarly, human capital accumulation also has a positive role in promoting urbanization and the role of the secondary industry is greater than the tertiary industry in promoting urbanization. finally average education years , openness of economy and space spillover of urbanization all benefit the process of urbanization.%本文通过构建简单的理论模型和利用1990—2010年省级面板数据来构建空间面板联立方程模型，考察我国人力资本积累与城镇化之间的互动关系。研究结果表明：我国省域人均人力资本存量与人口城镇化率都存在显著的正向空间相关性，空间溢出效应显著；城镇化对人力资本积累存在显著的非线性影响，当人口城镇化率低于45．49％时，城镇化对人力资本积累速度的边际效应是递减的；反之，边际效应是递增的；第三产业占比、人均GDP、人力资本和第三产业的空间溢出项均促进人力资本积累；城镇化与第三产业的交叉项也对人力资本积累产生正向效应，说明第三产业增加了城镇化对人力资本积累速度的边际效应。同样，人力资本积累也对城镇化具有正向推动作用，第二产业对城镇化的推动作用要大于第三产业，另外，人均受教育程度、对外开放程度以及城镇化的溢出效应均推动城镇化进程。