养老保险是国家为保障退休人员基本生活而建立的一种社会保险制度，居于社会保障的核心地位，但由于“老人”和“中人”累计债务的存在以及近年来老年人口的迅速增加等原因，现行养老保险制度的收支矛盾凸显。本文主要利用时间序列、寿险精算等方法测算2014-2020年北京市城镇养老金的收支状况，以期为政府养老金政策的制定和调整提供依据。测算结果显示，虽然在2020年以前养老金的年度收入一直大于年度支出，但是由于养老金收入和支出的不均衡增长，在2030年左右可能出现收不抵支的情况，需要动用累计结余基金弥补支出缺口。随着老龄人口的持续快速增加，长期来看则有发生养老金支付危机的可能。为防止支付危机的发生，政府可以对退休年龄、迁移率、缴费率、替代率等因素进行调整，但解决养老金支付危机的最根本方法还是采取有效措施彻底解决目前“老人”和“中人”的累计债务问题。%The endowment insurance is a social insurance system for ensuring basic life of retiree,which takes the core status in the social insurance . However;there exist contradictions of incomings and outgoings in current insurance system. And they are sharpening due to the population ageing and the appearance of the accumulated debt of“old aged”and“middle - aged”. In order to provide a basis for the formulation and adjustment of the government policy,the Beijing urban pension payment statuses in 2014 - 2020 is measure and calculate by time series analysis and life contingencies in this paper. The numerical results have shown that the incomings will not be able to cover the charge starting around 2030 and the surplus funds must be expensed due to the unbalanced growth of revenue and expenditure although the annual revenue has been greater than the annual expenditure until 2020. So the possibility of the pension payment crisis should not be ignored. In order to prevent the crisis,it is suggested to the government to adjust its policy on retirement age,migration rate,contribution rate and substitution rate. In our opinion,the most fundamental approach is to solve the accumulative debt problems of 〝old aged〝 and 〝 middle -aged 〝.
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