电力变压器全寿命周期成本模型参量的敏感性分析

摘要

影响电力变压器全寿命周期成本模型的不确定参数很多，这些参数的不确定性将直接影响电力变压器全寿命周期成本计算的准确性，因此从众多参量中找到对模型影响较大的参量不仅可以了解不确定因素对电力变压器全寿命周期成本评价指标的影响，从而提高决策的准确性；还可以知道对哪些较为敏感的因素需要重新进行分析研究，以提高预测的可靠性；斯皮尔曼相关系数分析法是分析输入不确定性对输出影响的主要方法，因此通过蒙特卡洛仿真模拟与斯皮尔曼相关系数分析方法对电力变压器全寿命周期成本模型参量分别进行定性与定量分析，最后得到了输入变量的重要度排序，为优化电力变压器全寿命周期成本模型参量的选取提供理论依据。%There are many uncertain parameters to influnce life cycle cost ( LCC) model of power transformer and will influnce directly the accuracy of LCC , so not only the effect of uncertain parameters on LCC model should be known to improve the ac -curacy of decision , but also which parameters need to be repeatly analyzed should be known to improve the reliability of cacu -lation by finding the main parameter from these uncertain parameters .Spearman correlation coefficient is the important method that is used to analyze the effect of the uncertain inputs on the output .So the parameter of life cycle cost for power transformer is analyzed through the Spearman correlation coefficient and Monte Carlo simulation .Finally, the important order of input pa-rameters is obtained , which provides the theory basic for the parameter selection of LCC for power transformer .