人工冻土单轴弹性模量灰色理论预测

摘要

Testing study is made on the artificial frozen soil uniaxial Young’s modulous parameters. In order to improve ac_curacy and stability of prediction on the artificial frozen soil uni_axial Young’s modulous the prediction methods of the artificial frozen soil uniaxial modulous of elasticity is put forward which can calculate artificial frozen soil uniaxial Young’s modulous , based on the artificial permafrost uniaxial Young’s modulous test and using grey theory which has the optimization ability to solve small sample , the improved GM (1, 1) model is established which can make up for the deficiency of the traditional model for increasing the smoothness of the original sequence based on big_ger error of the traditional GM (1, 1) model prediction , and the time response function is optimized , the results show that the prediction accuracy of improved GM (1, 1) model is superi_or to the traditional model. The improved model is a new method to predict the artificial frozen soil uniaxial strength Young’s mod_ulous. Has laid the foundation for the frozen soil project numeri_cal calculation, to further understand that the frozen soil me_chanics characteristic so as to provide the theoretical basis.%人工冻土弹性模量是冻结法建井计算的重要参数之一。为提高人工冻土单轴弹性模量预测的精确度与稳定性，利用灰色理论在处理小样本数据的优势，考虑影响人工冻土单轴弹性模量因素，提出了人工冻土单轴弹性模量的灰色理论预测方法，由于传统的 GM(1，1)模型在预测时产生的较大误差，所以增加了原始序列的光滑度，优化了时间响应函数，由此建立了改进的 GM(1，1)模型；并用改进的 GM(1，1)模型进行预测，结果表明，改进的 GM (1，1)模型的预测精度较传统模型高。该改进模型为人工冻土单轴弹性模量的预测提供了一种新的途径，同时也为进一步了解冻土力学特性提供了理论依据。