Based on surrounding rock converging deformation monitoring data in Shaojiatai tunnel on Gucheng-Zhuxi highway in Hubei province,this paper establishes gray system forecast model-GM(1,1),predicates tunnel surrounding rock converging deformation trend,and compares predictable value to actual value of typical tunnel section.Results show that GM(1,1) model achieves good effect.%基于湖北省谷(城)竹(溪)高速公路邵家台隧道围岩收敛变形监测数据,建立了灰色系统预测的GM(1,1)模型,对隧道围岩收敛变形趋势进行预测,并结合隧道典型断面预测值和实测值进行了对比研究,结果表明所建立灰色系统预测的GM(1,1)模型取得的效果较好。
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