基于AR和模糊综合评价的中国能源风险预警研究

摘要

The energy risk early warning index system is established based on the classification of primary energy structure. The energy system is divided into 3 sub-systems, including 37 indicators. On this basis, the energy risk early warning model of China is established using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and entropy weight combination. The demonstration analysis is conducted using the data from the year of 1995 to 2008 and it was concluded that the energy security situation was relatively stable but the structural contradictions was prominent in the recent years. The entire situation of energy security of China during the year of 2009 to 2010 is predicted based on AR model. The energy risk early warning index during this period is evaluated and the result indicated that this index objectively reflected the energy risk situation of China in the next few years.%本文基于一次能源结构的分类，建立了涵盖煤炭、石油天然气和能源经济3个子系统37个指标组成的能源风险预警指标体系。在此基础上，应用模糊综合评判和熵权相结合的方法建立了中国能源风险预警模型，对1995-2008年的数据进行实证分析，得到近几年能源安全态势相对良好但结构性矛盾突出的结论。然后，运用AR模型预测了2009-2010年我国能源安全状况，对期间能源风险预警指数进行评估，结果表明该指数客观地反映了我国未来几年的能源风险状况。