基于经济周期框架下的资产配置模型——对美林投资钟模型的修正和补充

摘要

Merrill Lynch investment clock is the most famous asset allocation model based on business cycle, but this paper find it mainly provided a framework of analysis and methods, there are still? shortcomings and deficiencies.ML' assumption that stagflation were the fourth phase of business cycle is contrary to traditional economics. Keynesianism view that stagflation is a special phenomenon, rather than a necessary stage. In the first time, this paper modifies and enlarges ML's Investment Clock from the non-classic business cycle point of view to make it perfect and practicable.%美林投资钟虽然是以经济周期为框架的最为著名的资产配置模型,但本文发现其主要是提供了一种研究的思路和方式,依然存在不足和缺陷.美林投资钟把滞胀作为经济周期第四阶段的假定是有悖于传统经济学的,凯恩斯主义认为滞胀是经济周期中的特殊现象,而不是必经阶段.本文第一次从非经典周期资产配置的角度,在理论上对美林投资钟作出修正和补充,以使之更完整和适用.