河北省县区农业投入产出弹性的空间计量分析

摘要

为探究基于空间相关效应的省域县级农业投入产出弹性，本研究选取河北省146个县、县级市及市辖区，利用2004年和2013年的截面数据，采用农业产出均值的专题地图、全局莫兰指数（Moran’s I）、空间联系的局域指数（LISA）分析了各县区农业产出的空间分布模式；采用空间误差冲击模型（SEM），估算了研究区农业的投入产出弹性。结果表明：河北省县区农业产出无论整体还是局部都存在着显著的空间自相关性，区域空间关联性和异质性非常明显；农业产出的计量模型显示，研究区域农业产出的空间分布特征时，空间效应的作用不容忽视，对农业产出弹性最大的是土地，农业资本和劳动投入弹性较小。%In order to explore the county agricultural input -output elasticity based on the spatial corre-lation effect,146 counties,county -level cities and municipal districts of Hebei Province were selected as ob-jects in this study.With their section data of 2004 and 2013,the thematic maps of agricultural output mean value,the global Moran index (Moran’s I)and the spatial contact local index (LISA)were used to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of county agricultural output.The output elasticity of agricultural inputs was es-timated based on the spatial error impact model (SEM).The results showed that either wholly or in part,the agricultural output of all the counties in Hebei Province had significant spatial autocorrelation and regional spa-tial correlation and obvious heterogeneity.The econometric model of agricultural output showed that the func-tion of spatial effects could not be ignored during studying the spatial distribution pattern of regional agricultur-al output.The elasticity of land was the maximum to agricultural output,and that of agricultural capital and labor input was smaller.