基于ARIMA模型的青岛市大蒜价格时间序列预测分析

摘要

Taking garlic price of 237 weeks from January 2012 to November 2016 in Qingdao City as sample data and using SPSS 17.0 to conduct statistical analysis,we built the ARIMA(1,2,1)model and forecast garlic price in the next 10 weeks.The garlic price showed a trend of continuous rise in the short term.By analyzing the reasons of violent fluctuation in garlic price,we proposed some suggestions including perfecting the construction of garlic information system,building up garlic collection and storage system,building up reasonable and clear channels of production and marketing and carrying out intensive production of garlic.%以青岛市2012年1月至2016年11月共237周的大蒜价格为样本数据,运用SPSS 17.0软件进行统计分析,建立ARIMA(1,2,1)模型并对未来10周的大蒜价格进行预测,发现大蒜价格在短期内有持续上涨的趋势.通过分析大蒜价格剧烈波动的原因,提出完善大蒜信息体系建设、建立大蒜收储制度、建立合理畅通的产销渠道、推行大蒜集约化生产的政策建议.