定量分析农业技术人员对农业GDP的影响,为健全和完善农业技术推广体系提供依据.基于VEC-ADL模型,对湖北省39年来农业技术人员和农业GDP进行动态效应分析,结果显示:农业技术人员对农业产值的正效应为1.164,但这种效应具有滞后性,到第三年才开始显现,到第七年表现为稳定期,其边际效应为0.农业技术人员是农业GDP增长的重要因素,农业技术人员数量与农业产值具有稳定的正向关系,其影响极其显著并具有长期效应.%This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the effect on the economic development of agricultural GDP from agricultural technological staffs and provides evidence for improving and completing the agricultural technological promoting system policy. Based on the VEC-ADL model, this paper makes a dynamic effect analysis on the 39 years' agricultural technological staffs and agricultural GDP. The result shows that the positive effect on the agricultural output value from the agricultural technological staffs is 1. 164, but this effect has its hysteresis property and shows itself only in the third year. Its stationary phase appears in the seventh year and its marginal effect is 0. Agriculture technological staffs are the important element of the increasing of agricultural GDP. There is a stable positive relationship between the number of the agricultural technological staffs and the agricultural output value, and its effect is significant and long lasting.
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