广东省对外贸易与国际物流关系的实证研究

摘要

Based on the annual data of port throughput, traffic and import & export from 1978 to 2010, the paper analyzes the relationship between Guangdong foreign trade and international logistics by means of co - integration theory, VAR model, impulse response function, variance decomposition and Granger causality. The results show that there exists a long -term co - integration relationship between Guangdong foreign trade and international logistics. The development of international logistics can significantly improve the level of foreign trade, whereas the stimulating effect of foreign trade on international logistics is not significant.%根据广东省1978～2010年进出口贸易额、港口吞吐量和货物运输量年度时间序列数据,运用协整理论和VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法,分析广东省对外贸易与国际物流之间的关系.研究结果表明,广东省对外贸易与国际物流之间存在长期均衡的协整关系；国际物流对对外贸易的影响较为显著,而对外贸易对国际物流的影响不显著.