我国大学科技创新景气指数研究

摘要

This paper summarized the theories and methods of university science and technology innovation,analyzes the existing university innovation index’ s shortcomings based on innovation ability and performance such as lack of scheduling and dynamic,no warning function,not reflecting the volatility state of university science and technology innovation,no pol-icy guidance,and weak timeliness. Based on innovation cycle theory and the perspective in good state,this paper combines the climate analysis method with the index evaluation system of science and technology innovation in university,constructs the university technological innovation climate index and early warning signal system in order to reflect the state,degree of volatility and cycle of innovation. It can provide decision-making reference for university technological innovation policy formulation and adjustment through the result of measure analysis.%综述大学科技创新测度的理论与方法，分析现有基于创新能力和绩效的大学创新指数存在的缺乏时序性和动态性、无预警功能、不能反映大学科技创新景气波动状态、对科技创新政策指导性、时效性较弱等缺点。在创新周期理论基础上，基于景气状态视角，将景气分析方法与大学科技创新指标评价体系结合，构建大学科技创新景气指数及预警信号系统，以反映创新景气状态、波动程度及循环周期，并通过分析景气测度结果，为大学科技创新政策的制定和调整提供决策参考依据。