环境管制与中国农业全要素生产率增长研究

摘要

利用中国省际面板数据，将农业面源污染和碳排放作为“坏产出”指标纳入农业全要素生产率测算中，采用Malmquist-Luenberger指数分析2001-2010年考虑环境因素下中国30个省市区的农业全要素生产率及其分解成分，并探讨考虑环境因素下中国农业全要素生产率演变的影响因素。研究结果表明：考虑环境因素的中国农业全要素生产率呈增长趋势，但表现出较大的波动性，其动力主要来源于技术进步；从地区差异来看，考虑环境因素下中国农业全要素生产率呈现东、中、西部地区依次递减；农村经济发展水平、农业产业结构变动、农业基础设施投资对考虑环境因素下中国农业全要素生产率有显著影响，而环境管制影响则不显著。%The paper uses the provincial panel data to calculate the agricultural non-point source pollution and carbon e-missions as“bad output”index and incorporates it into the agricultural total factor productivity.Then the paper applies the Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index method to analyze the growth of agricultural total factor productivity under envi-ronmental regulations of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 201 0,and discusses the influence factors of agricultural total factor productivity in China under consideration of environment.Results show that:agricultural total factor productivity un-der consideration of environment in China has a growing trend but show greater volatility,which is mainly driven by the technological progress;the agricultural total factor productivity in China under consideration of environment has a decrea-sing trend in the order of the eastern,central and western regions;agricultural economic development,agricultural structure fluctuant,agricultural infrastructure investment have a significant effect on agricultural total factor productivity in China un-der consideration of environment,but the effect of environmental regulation is not significant.