为了揭示随时间变化产业发展受资源环境约束的规律，以新疆绿洲为例，基于变参数状态空间模型，分析资源环境对产业发展的约束。结果表明，环境因子中工业废气排放对产业发展的约束程度最强。从产业结构调整的能源因子看，二产能源效率约束程度最大；从水资源因子看，农业耗水与非农业耗水对产业发展约束程度的变化较稳定，且农业耗水对产业发展的约束程度较大，只有不断推进产业结构优化才是实现新疆可持续发展的有效路径。%In order to reveal the changing rules of resources environment constraint on industrial development over time, based on time - varying parameter state space model,taking Xinjiang Oasis as an example,this paper analyzes the resource and environmental constraint on industrial development empirically. The results show that:the strongest environmental con-straint factor on industrial development is industrial emissions. From the energy impact of industrial structure adjustment, the greatest constraint of energy consumption is the second industry. From the water resources,change is relatively stable for the constraint of agricultural water consumption and non agricultural water consumption on industry development,and agricultural water consumption has bigger constraint on industry development. Only continuing to optimize the industrial structure,can Xinjiang have effective ways to achieve sustainable development.
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