农业旱灾适应性评价研究--以云南省曲靖市为例

摘要

This paper selects Qujing City as the typical study area,and the system of drought adaptation evaluation is estab-lished according to the characteristics of agricultural drought. Then a multi-level and multi-indicator assessment model for agricultural drought adaptation assessment is proposed based on Variable Fuzzy Set Theory. The levels of drought adapt-ability of the study area are calculated by specific variable fuzzy analysis. At last,the hierarchical graph of drought adapta-tion evaluation of the study area is obtained through using GIS. The results show that the overall resilience is between weak and average;the analysis results are consistent with the actual situation and show that there are some regional differences of the study area. The results also indicate that the Variable Fuzzy Analysis Method is feasible and effective.%以云南省曲靖市为典型研究区域，根据农业旱灾系统的特性，构建农业旱灾适应性评价指标体系；基于可变模糊集合理论，构建农业旱灾适应性定量评估的多指标多级别评价模型。依据划定的云南省曲靖市农业旱灾适应性评估分级区间界限值，计算得出各研究单元的旱灾适应性等级，并借助GIS绘制出研究区域的农业旱灾适应性评价的等级图。结果表明，研究区域的整体适应能力处于弱与一般之间，各子区域存在一定的差异，与实际情况基本一致。研究结果也显示了基于可变模糊分析法的旱灾适应性评价的实用性和有效性。