土壤冻土变化与严重干旱发生概率

摘要

干旱发生的概率，是直接影响农作物生长和人们生活的主要自然灾害，尤其是严重干旱。通过分析干旱指数的变化，以及空气与土壤的干燥程度和干旱趋势，提出土壤冻土的深度与持续时间的长短，可以预警4至6月份春季严重干旱发生的概率。%Occurrence of severe drought is primary natural disaster directly impact on crop growth and people’s life, espe-cially severe drought. Through analyzing changes of drought index, drying degree of soil and air and drought trend, the paper was put forward that frozen soil depth and duration stretch may make early warning occurrence of severe drought from April to June in spring.