我国对金砖国家出口贸易潜力测算①--基于引力模型的实证分析

摘要

运用加入金融发展指标等变量后的贸易引力模型，从总量和行业两个层面测算了我国对金砖国家的出口贸易潜力。在总量层面上，详细分析了影响贸易潜力的因素；在行业层面上，根据贸易潜力值差异，进而从行业层面深化出口贸易潜力分析，将31个出口行业划分为贸易过度、贸易正常和贸易不足三种类型，并针对不同国家的出口潜力情况提出具体建议，稳健性分析表明回归结果可靠。%This paper,by using the trade Gravity Model considering such variables as financial development index,estimates the po-tential of China's export trade towards other BRICs form the two perspectives of both the total level and the level of the industry.On the total level,the paper studies the factors that influence trade potential.On the level of the industry,according to the differences in the value of trade potential,a deeper analysis is performed on the potential of export trade.Thus,the 31 export industries are divided into three types,each characterizes by excessive trade,normal trade and inadequate trade.Some specific suggestions are provided accord-ing to the export potentials of different countries.Finally,the robustness analysis indicates credible and applicable regression results.