制度变迁与技术进步对中国经济增长的影响

摘要

本文基于向量误差修正模型，实证分析1986—2013年中国制度变迁、技术进步与经济增长的动态关系以及两者对经济增长的影响。研究发现：制度变迁、技术进步与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，二者都与经济增长正相关；在长期，制度变迁对经济增长具有明显的促进作用，并且这种促进作用仍能进一步增强；脉冲响应分析发现技术冲击对经济增长的影响比制度冲击的影响衰退更快。%Based on the vector error correct model,this paper studied the dynamic relationship among institutional changes,technological progress and economic growth,as well as the effect of institution and technology on China's economic growth from 1986 to 2013.The empirical results indicate as follows:there is a stable equilibrium relationship among them in a long time;institutional changes have a positive effect on economic growth in a long time situation,and the effect can be enhanced further;compared with the institution shock,the effect of technology shock on economic growth declines faster.