以塔里木河下游植被分布区域2000年、2002年ETM、2004年、2006年ASTER影像和景观格局分析结果为基础数据,使用马尔科夫过程模型对未来景观格局变化进行预测,并对结果进行验证,其地类模拟值和实际值之间的偏差都在0.5％之内.结果表明:2006年～2030年研究区天然植被逐年增加；沙地减少明显;河流基本维持自己的动态平衡,植被增加和沙地减少的幅度均逐渐趋于平缓,达到阈值.这预示着未来时期生态输水仍然对地类覆被变化起着积极的作用.%This article analyzed the landscape eigenvalue and landscape pattern from the ETM(2000,2002)and Aster(2004, 2006) satellite images of the main area where the vegetation distributed in the lower reaches of Tarim river. Using Markov process model to forecast the future landscape pattern change trend and the forecast results are verified, the deviation between the simulated ground type and practical value is within 0. 5%. Research results shown:the natural vegetation of research area in 2006 - 2030 is increasing year by year. The sand decreased significantly by 2006,rivers basically maintain their dynamic balance, vegetation and sand are gradually decreasing the amplitude,and reached threshold. This foreshadows that the ecological transfer of water to the land cover change still plays a positive role.
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